Why Donald Trump Achieved a Major Step in the Middle East But Faces Challenges With Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict
Reports of an impending US-Russia presidential meeting have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Just days after President Trump announced he planned to confer with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.
A preliminary meeting by the two nations' top diplomats has been called off, too.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump told the press at the White House on a recent weekday. "I don't want a waste of time, so I will observe what happens."
- Trump states he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin postponed
- Letdown in Kyiv as Zelensky departs Washington empty-handed
The on-again, off-again summit is another twist in Trump's attempts to broker an end to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a topic of increased attention for the American leader after he orchestrated a ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement in Gaza.
During a speech in the North African country recently to celebrate that truce deal, Trump turned to Steve Witkoff, with a new request.
"It is essential to get Russia done," he said.
Nonetheless, the conditions that converged to make a Middle East success achievable for the negotiation team may be challenging to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for nearing several years.
Reduced Influence
Per the lead negotiator, the key to achieving a deal was the Israeli government's decision to attack representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a action that infuriated America's Arab allies but gave Trump bargaining power to pressure Israel's leader Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump gained from a long record of supporting the Israeli state dating back to his first term, including his decision to move the American embassy to Jerusalem, to change US policy on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his support for Israeli defense operations against Iran.
The American leader, actually, is more popular among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a situation that gave him special sway over the Israeli leader.
Add in Trump's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the region, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to force an deal.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, Trump has much less influence. In recent months, he has swung between efforts to strong-arm the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.
The US leader has threatened to enact additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that doing so could harm the world's financial stability and further escalate the conflict.
Meanwhile, the US leader has criticized openly Zelensky, halting briefly information exchange with the country and pausing arms shipments to the country - only to then back off in the face of concerned European allies who warn a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the whole area.
Trump loves to tout his ability to meet and hammer out agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to advance the hostilities any nearer a resolution.
The Russian president may actually be exploiting the US leader's wish for a deal – and faith in direct negotiations - as a means of influencing him.
During the summer, Russia's leader agreed to a high-level meeting in Alaska at the time when it seemed probable that the president would approve on congressional sanctions package backed by GOP senators. That legislation was subsequently put on hold.
Last week, as news emerged that the White House was considering seriously sending long-range missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the Russian leader called the US president who then promoted the potential meeting in Budapest.
The next day, Trump hosted Zelensky at the executive residence, but left empty-handed after a allegedly strained discussion.
The US leader insisted that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"You know, I have been manipulated all my life by skilled operators, and I came out successfully," he remarked.
However the president of Ukraine subsequently made note of the timeline of developments.
"As soon as the matter of long-range mobility became a little further away for Ukraine – for our nation – Russia quickly became less interested in negotiations," he said.
Thus, in a short period, the president has shifted from considering the idea of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to organizing a Budapest summit with Putin and confidentially urging Zelensky to surrender the entire Donbas region – even territory Russia has been failed to capture.
He has finally decided on calling for a ceasefire along present frontlines – a proposal Russia has rejected.
On the campaign trail previously, the candidate promised that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has subsequently abandoned that commitment, saying that concluding the war is turning out more difficult than he expected.
It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his authority – and the difficulty of finding a framework for peace when both parties wants, or is able to, cease hostilities.